Global Transport Scenario

Global transport emissions grow to 2050, as demand strengthens and emission intensity improves only moderately with the uptake of energy-efficient vehicles and hybrids. Global transport emissions grow 0.1-1.0 per cent per year on average to 2050. This compares with growth in the reference scenario of more than 2 per cent per year to 2050. Emissions decline by around 41-59 per cent relative to the reference scenario across all scenarios by 2050. Similar mitigation occurs across water, air and land transport.

Strongest growth in transport emissions occurs where income growth is most rapid, including China, India and the rest of world, which includes other fast growing developing economies.

Mitigation in transport is considerably less than for electricity generation as petroleum remains the primary source of fuel to 2050.

The 2020 Transport Scenario		The 2050 Transport Scenario

Sourced: Australia's Low Pollution Future: The Economics of Climate Change Mitigation, 2008